The Treaty Principles Bill is NZ’s Brexit
Luxon’s weakness is our problem
The Treaty Principles Bill will be the centrepiece of the 2026 election.
Even if it dies at the Second Reading in six months, assuming National and NZ First aren’t even weaker than their recent showings indicate, the attempt to override and redefine 184 years of partnership, breach, legislation and law is not going anywhere soon.
Those who have agitated for redefining the treaty out of all historic and precedential context, who seek the final victory of the colonial Crown over Te Ao Maori — (mostly those horrified about the decades since the Waitangi Tribunal began addressing treaty breaches 49 years ago, and addressing historic breaches 39 years ago) — they don’t see the bill falling as a failure, they see it as a stepping stone.
Because of the weakness of a man desperate to be Prime Minister, the document which pre-dates Parliament and underpins the foundation of New Zealand, is now at risk from those with nothing but ill-intentions for both the past, and future of the country.
What happens next?
The first reading of the Treaty Principles Bill is today, Thursday 14 November. It will go to Select Committee over the next six months, allowing for a very public and no doubt media driven repetition of how the settled law of treaty principles, how Te Tiriti is applied in legislation and how the terms of the treaty from 1840 are actually terrible and need replacing by a teenage debate-club understanding of equality and constitutional makeup.
When, or if, it falls at the Second Reading — some of the worst people in New Zealand will immediately open their campaign for a Citizens Initiated Referendum on the Treaty Principles Bill. This will be the same coalition who demanded water infrastructure securing legislation be repealed, in favour of higher rates and insecure water, because they didn’t like that iwi were involved.
The referendum will be timed to coincide with the 2026 General Election, and without a doubt the ACT Party will campaign on passing the Treaty Principles Bill. Should National be returned to power, and require ACT’s support as they have done consistently since 2008 — David Seymour will make passing the bill the red-line of the negotiation, potentially backed by a narrow referendum result in his favour.
So far, so Brexit.
This was all pretty obvious from the minute Seymour made getting this bill to Select Committee one of his red-lines in the Coalition Agreement between ACT and National. Because unlike Christopher Luxon, Seymour is adept at playing the long-game.
He knew that getting this bill past the first reading in Parliament meant getting a six-month platform for everyone who hates whatever they think the Treaty has done to them (which is usually actually either the Crown, or capitalism, or both). That’s effectively laying the ground for the referendum, and building on the success of how 3 Waters was repealed using similar anti-Maori tactics.
But we’ve seen this before right? A weak Prime Minister attempting to undercut his right-wing critics by offering a referendum on a complex of deep social, political and constitutional importance, only for it to explode. Yeah, the U.K did this with Brexit eight years ago and it fucked their country.
The Treaty Principles Bill and Brexit have the same underlying motivation from its advocates. It’s about sovereignty. Except it isn’t. It’s about accumulating power in a way which will ultimately be damaging to the country, by placing the blame for the decline of that country on a third party. For the Brexiteers, it was the E.U’s fault. For Seymour et al, it’s Te Tiriti and Te Ao Maori who are at fault.
The Brexiteer lines were simple but also completely useless at explaining the actual complexity of the thing they attacked. Get Brexit done, no more EU regulation, more money for our country. If you’ve been paying attention, that’s not what happened.
Similarly Treaty Principles Bills supporters are claiming that by redefining Te Tiriti as three articles where the Crown has complete sovereignty, and Maori rights are contingent on Crown approval, and everyone has equial rights is somehow about just ensuring everyone has equal individual rights. Which it isn’t. Because the first two principles in their own bill say it isn’t.
Dark waters and politics
Do you know why the anti-Three Waters campaign was successful? Yes, it tapped into anti-Maori sentiment and racism, while National, ACT and NZ First all jumped onto it believing they’d found something to help them win the 2023 election.
But it also was never defended by the exhausted and bedraggled Labour Government in a way that could be understood easily by the country. In short; a bill which would have secured all water infrastructure, addressed the investment gap of billions, and ensured privatisation of water was off the agenda permanently, all while reducing Council rates around the country — was never actually sold as exactly what it was.
Instead they got bogged down in discussions about iwi roles on boards, local control of water (yeah that’s why there’s a fucking huge infrastructure gap lads) and spent almost their entire time debating on the terms of their opponents, rather than the merits of their own policy.
While we’ve got Crown Law saying this bill is incoherent to the point that the judiciary will avoid it in favour of settled law, and Kings Counsels signing letters pointing out how bad this attempt to override over a century of legislative and judicial precedent, and as the hikoi march south — have we got the killer line to oppose both this part of the process, and the future referendum campaign?
So what’s the line?
Te Tiriti o Waitangi was signed on February 6 1840. For 135 years, before the establishment of the Waitangi Tribunal in 1975, it was not upheld as the partnership between the signatories and the Crown.
We are not yet 50 years into addressing 185 years of failing to uphold Te Tiriti, and Seymour wishes to replace the natural evolution of our constitutional democracy with something that has no actual interpretation of Te Tiriti, or the nearly two centuries of developing a state which rests upon it.
Te Tiriti is not weakness, or division. It is a strength of Aotearoa New Zealand, something unique to our country which makes this place better than our fellow former colonies. We commemorate its signing each year as the birth of what was to become our nation, but also the continuing efforts we all experience to honour it.
David Seymour had success with his End of Life Bill but, overconfident, he is attempting to euthanise Te Tiriti o Waitangi. He must not be allowed to do that.
Twenty-twenty-six
Did you know the Brexit Referendum was non-binding? It was empowered by David Cameron’s Government, as he miscalculated that the UK would vote to stay. Much like Luxon, he had the overconfidence that he could credibly defend the institution he’d bashed himself for political gain. He couldn’t.
Any potential Citizens Initiated Referendum (CIR) is also non-binding. Only a Government Initiated Referendum can be binding, and should the Treaty Principles Bill fall at the second reading, that option should be off the table.
However, there’s nothing stopping parties vying for power post-2026 announcing they will implement the result of a CIR, and making it a central plank of their election campaign.
A couple of action points here. To have a CIR, 10% of those enrolled to vote must sign a petition for it. Currently there are around 3.6 million people enrolled to vote, meaning the magic number is 368,000-ish. The more people you enrol to vote, the higher that number goes. So, get your whanau signed up.
Not pretty, easy, fun. Frustrating? You bet.
This isn’t going to be pretty. You’re going to see a full court press from the institutions of the right: there’ll be new organisations appearing with J. Williams as their postal address, Don Brash will be given a new clear-coat of polyurethane and sent forth, and Julian Batchelor and his band of merry fuckwits will roll out to rural towns.
This isn’t going to be easy either. The best way to kill this off is to ensure the current parties of Government are not returned to power in 2026. That means relying on the NZ Labour Party to sort its shit out soon. Hopefully they learned from failing to defend Three Waters from these same groups, these same politicians, these same lies.
And sorry, but this isn’t going to be fun. You’re going to see institutions weakened by successive Governments who don’t support civil society come out and try to speak up, and be dismissed. Today we’ve had Kings Counsels and Crown Law advice say it’s bad, and explain why it’s bad, to be met with “Well that’s their opinion”.
This is going to be frustrating, you’re going to see expert knowledge dismissed by reductive statements which deliberately avoid engaging with complexity or nuance — because it’s easier to be loud and wrong than it is to be loud and right when we’re talking about the foundations of the country.
That said, there’s a place for joy. Write to your MPs, go and see them and talk to them, ring their offices. Demonstrate, sign petitions, hikoi, support the cause. Enrol your whanau to vote, because there’s going to be a point when that’s going to matter.
So, when I say the Treaty Principles Bill is NZ’s Brexit, I mean it is an attempt by the right-wing to consolidate power and overturn institutions for their benefit. This attempt will be wrapped in false promises and populism, with a good dose of racism in there as well. We must learn from recent mistakes, both here and overseas.
We’re all playing the long game here, and we can win this one if we do it together.
